Singapore General Election _Analysis

Opposition parties should be aware of their strengths and limitations, the strength of the ruling party and also the needs and aspiration of the voters.

Aspiration of Electorate

From the last election results, there is an indication that as much as the voters would want more opposition candidates to win, they do not want a change of government. They understand that a sudden change of government will create political instability and there will be a negative effect on the economy.

Moreover, the opposition parties appear disunited, even before the election. It is unlikely that they can unite after the election. A disunited government cannot perform well having to spend a lot of time to overcome their differences and conflict.

In order for the opposition parties to serve the electorate well, they must show that they are sensitive to their needs.

Their election strategy must reflect their understanding of the needs of the electorate. Below are 3 strategies.

Strategy B would be the one supported by the voters.

It will be a good thing to conduct a survey to get feedback on the preference of the majority of the voters.

Strategy A

This is straightforward. The opposition parties should contest in the 12 Single Member Constituency (SMC) wards. Increasing from our present 2 opposition members to 12 is an increase of 600%. When there is a 3-corner contest, there is some complication. Since Worker’s Party has the highest % of votes during the last election, it goes to show that people may vote for this party first, Singapore Democratic Alliance second, Singapore Democratic Party third. For other parties, we will have to look at how strong the individual candidate is. For this, I will have to update after Nomination Day.

Voters can actually force opposition to form only one party. The strongest opposition party is the Workers’ Party. So, each time there is a corner fight, they can all vote for the Workers’ Party forcing the third party to lose its deposit. The Workers’ Party MP has more than 10 years of looking after the constituency. He is a good mentor for all future opposition MPs .

Strategy B

Make use of the by-election strategy and contest less than half the number of seats.

The aim is to stop the ruling party from winning a two- third majority.

Results of last election

PAP 66.60%

Workers’ Party 16.34%

Singapore Democratic Alliance 12.99%

Singapore Democratic Party 4.07%

In the last election, the opposition won 33.4% of the votes. This is more than one third. One third of the total 84 seats in the last election is28. But, the opposition won only 2 seats. By simple Math, the system seems imperfect. However, the system can be worked around.

According to the by-elections strategy, the target number of seats to contest in this election is 43, giving PAP 44 seats via walkover on Nomination Day. Since the electorate has no fear of change of government, they will feel safe to vote for the opposition to put pressure on the ruling party to perform even better.

Based on last election’s results

Workers’ Party 16.34% of 87 seats 14 seats

Singapore Democratic Alliance 12.99% of 87 seats 11 seats

Singapore Democratic Party 4.07% of 87 seats 3.5 (4 )seats

Total 33.4% of 87 seats 29 seats

So, there is an extra (43 – 29) 14 seats.

Workers’ Party should contest (14 ÷ 29 x 14) 6.7 seats ( 7 )

Singapore Democratic Alliance (11 ÷ 29 x 14 ) 5.3 seats ( 5 )

Singapore Democratic Party ( 3.5 ÷ 29 x 14 ) 1.6 seats ( 2 )

Hence, the suggested total number of seats to be contested is as follows:

Workers’ Party 21 seats

Singapore Democratic Alliance 16 seats

Singapore Democratic Party 6 seats

Total 43 seats

By following Plan B, the opposition can win 30 to 43 seats depriving the ruling party a two-third majority.

Increasing from 2 to 30 seats is an increase of 1500%. This will be the most fantastic achievement by the opposition parties in the history of Singapore General Election.

The figures above only serve as a guide for opposition parties to refer to during their discussion.

Strategy C

This is to contest in 50% or more than 50% of the seats.

In the last election held on 6 May 2006, the opposition contested in 47 out of 84 seats. One very important reason why the opposition won only 2 seats is the fear of change of government. Voters are smart. Voting is an investment and not a gamble.

Based on last election results, by following Plan C, the opposition may win 2 and even less seats.

Flood Prevention

"Whatever we do when we get extraordinary rains like we had recently, no amount of engineering can prevent flooding... unless you want to lose half the roads and have canals." (Channel News Asia, 21 July 2010) - Mr Lee Kuan Yew, Minister Mentor

I tend to disagree and would like to suggest two alternative approaches.

One approach is to build pumps and underground pipes to channel rainwater from canals and monsoon-drains in flood-prone areas to other canals or into the reservoirs. This redistribution can prevent overflowing of rainwater and ultimately curb the flooding.
This system has been proven to be effective in China. This is reported in The Epoch Times in Hong Kong on 28 July 2010. As quoted from the article titled “Ancient Chinese drain system saves city from flooding” - “..some experts estimate the system can handle additional three or four times the current rainwater”.

This approach can be adapted to Singapore by constructing underground pipes to channel water from the Bukit Timah Canal to the Catchment Area around MacRitchie and Lower Peirce Reservoir to prevent floods along Coronation Road and Bukit Timah Road. If this is successful, we can also channel rain water from the Stamford Canal to the Bukit Timah Canal, to prevent future floods in the Orchard Road area.

Another approach is to build dams. Dams have been known to help prevent floods. A notable example is the Three Gorges Dam in China’s Hubei province. Why not build dams on a smaller scale across our canals and monsoon-drains in critical areas prone to flooding?

For instance, dams can be built at various sections along the drains and canals that carry water into Stamford Canal. These dams will be able to hold back rain water, thus preventing water from gushing into the Stamford Canal and causing flash floods along Orchard Road. These dams can also trap debris before it is washed down into the Stamford Canal. To prevent stagnant water and mosquito breeding, there can also be a hole at the bottom of the dam.