Singapore General Election _Analysis

Opposition parties should be aware of their strengths and limitations, the strength of the ruling party and also the needs and aspiration of the voters.

Aspiration of Electorate

From the last election results, there is an indication that as much as the voters would want more opposition candidates to win, they do not want a change of government. They understand that a sudden change of government will create political instability and there will be a negative effect on the economy.

Moreover, the opposition parties appear disunited, even before the election. It is unlikely that they can unite after the election. A disunited government cannot perform well having to spend a lot of time to overcome their differences and conflict.

In order for the opposition parties to serve the electorate well, they must show that they are sensitive to their needs.

Their election strategy must reflect their understanding of the needs of the electorate. Below are 3 strategies.

Strategy B would be the one supported by the voters.

It will be a good thing to conduct a survey to get feedback on the preference of the majority of the voters.

Strategy A

This is straightforward. The opposition parties should contest in the 12 Single Member Constituency (SMC) wards. Increasing from our present 2 opposition members to 12 is an increase of 600%. When there is a 3-corner contest, there is some complication. Since Worker’s Party has the highest % of votes during the last election, it goes to show that people may vote for this party first, Singapore Democratic Alliance second, Singapore Democratic Party third. For other parties, we will have to look at how strong the individual candidate is. For this, I will have to update after Nomination Day.

Voters can actually force opposition to form only one party. The strongest opposition party is the Workers’ Party. So, each time there is a corner fight, they can all vote for the Workers’ Party forcing the third party to lose its deposit. The Workers’ Party MP has more than 10 years of looking after the constituency. He is a good mentor for all future opposition MPs .

Strategy B

Make use of the by-election strategy and contest less than half the number of seats.

The aim is to stop the ruling party from winning a two- third majority.

Results of last election

PAP 66.60%

Workers’ Party 16.34%

Singapore Democratic Alliance 12.99%

Singapore Democratic Party 4.07%

In the last election, the opposition won 33.4% of the votes. This is more than one third. One third of the total 84 seats in the last election is28. But, the opposition won only 2 seats. By simple Math, the system seems imperfect. However, the system can be worked around.

According to the by-elections strategy, the target number of seats to contest in this election is 43, giving PAP 44 seats via walkover on Nomination Day. Since the electorate has no fear of change of government, they will feel safe to vote for the opposition to put pressure on the ruling party to perform even better.

Based on last election’s results

Workers’ Party 16.34% of 87 seats 14 seats

Singapore Democratic Alliance 12.99% of 87 seats 11 seats

Singapore Democratic Party 4.07% of 87 seats 3.5 (4 )seats

Total 33.4% of 87 seats 29 seats

So, there is an extra (43 – 29) 14 seats.

Workers’ Party should contest (14 ÷ 29 x 14) 6.7 seats ( 7 )

Singapore Democratic Alliance (11 ÷ 29 x 14 ) 5.3 seats ( 5 )

Singapore Democratic Party ( 3.5 ÷ 29 x 14 ) 1.6 seats ( 2 )

Hence, the suggested total number of seats to be contested is as follows:

Workers’ Party 21 seats

Singapore Democratic Alliance 16 seats

Singapore Democratic Party 6 seats

Total 43 seats

By following Plan B, the opposition can win 30 to 43 seats depriving the ruling party a two-third majority.

Increasing from 2 to 30 seats is an increase of 1500%. This will be the most fantastic achievement by the opposition parties in the history of Singapore General Election.

The figures above only serve as a guide for opposition parties to refer to during their discussion.

Strategy C

This is to contest in 50% or more than 50% of the seats.

In the last election held on 6 May 2006, the opposition contested in 47 out of 84 seats. One very important reason why the opposition won only 2 seats is the fear of change of government. Voters are smart. Voting is an investment and not a gamble.

Based on last election results, by following Plan C, the opposition may win 2 and even less seats.